Report

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California’s Virtual Power Potential: How Five Consumer Technologies Could Improve the State’s Energy Affordability

Various

Brattle

"The purpose of our study is to estimate the market potential for VPP deployment in California. We define 'market potential' as all cost-effective VPP capacity that can be developed at achievable, voluntary participation rates by the year 2035. We focus on five commercially available dispatchable technologies: smart thermostat-based air-conditioning control, behind-the-meter (BTM) batteries, residential electric vehicle charging, grid-interactive water heating, and automated demand response (auto-DR) for large commercial buildings and industrial facilities."

Real Reliability: The Value of Virtual Power

Various

Brattle

"We model the economics of a residential VPP for a representative U.S. utility system in 2030. The utility system is 50% renewables, with both summer and winter resource adequacy needs. The VPP in our study is composed of commercially available residential load flexibility technologies. VPP operations are based on actual observed performance of DERs, accounting for operational and behavioral constraints. The net cost of providing resource adequacy from the VPP is compared to that of a gas peaker and utility-scale battery. Net cost accounts for additional value from energy, ancillary services T&D deferral, resilience, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions."

Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Virtual Power Plants

Various

DOE

"With electricity demand growing for the first time in a decade and fossil assets retiring, deploying 80-160 GW of virtual power plants (VPPs) — tripling current scale — by 2030 could support rapid electrification while redirecting grid spending from peaker plants to participants and reducing overall grid costs."

Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Overview of Societal Considerations and Impacts

Various

DOE

"How first-of-a-kind energy infrastructure projects impact — and are impacted by — society can determine market liftoff. Individual projects introduce far-reaching, multi-generational changes to local communities, while also setting the standard for follow-on projects unfolding across the country. In this way, social considerations and impacts not only influence the success of each individual project, but ultimately determine social acceptance and adoption."

Modeling the Effects of Distributed Generation on Transmission Infrastructure Investment

K. Moyer, J. Muhs, A. Palomino

ESIG

"Distributed generation resources (DGRs) have the potential to transform the way we plan and operate energy systems … Depending on the specifics of design and implementation, distributed solar and storage resources (DGRs) may: Drive the need for investment by causing congestion or overloading in low-voltage distribution infrastructure (wires, transformers) used to get electricity to our homes and businesses; Defer or eliminate the need for new investment by offsetting loads and reducing loading of distribution infrastructure ... The motivation of this study is to assess if high adoption rates of DGRs, could reduce the need for some future transmission investments on a macroscale."

The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over

John D Wilson, Zach Zimmerman

Grid Strategies, LLC

"The nationwide forecast of electricity demand shot up from 2.6% to 4.7% growth over the next five years, as reflected in 2023 FERC filings … Grid planners forecast peak demand growth of 38 gigawatts (GW) through 2028, requiring rapid planning and construction of new generation and transmission ... The main drivers are investment in new manufacturing, industrial, and data center facilities ... The U.S. electric grid is not prepared for significant load growth."